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Horse Racing Tipster  Welcome to Queribus Dutches
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Tipster of the Week Winner 6th April 2008Tipster of the Week Third Place 13th July 2008Tipster of the Week Third Place 1st March 2009
About the selections

For full information on the selections and how to use them please visit my website at www.queribus.co.uk

**Important note**

From February 2010 I will be changing the way that the selections are selected. I will be concentrating on the dutched selections that I believe to be the most consistent. I expect the number of dutch selections given out to drop but also expect the strike rate and ROI to increase in the long term.


Welcome to Queribus Dutches.

These are the dutches that I previously posted on my blog on the Queribus page on Tip Exchange. Please read my terms and conditions before subscribing. If you feel that you cannot accept these terms and conditions then you should not subscribe.

Important: By subscribing to my service you implicitly accept the following. You must agree that you will only use my selections for your own personal use. You must not pass on my selections to any third party by any means. If you know of a third party that wishes to access my selections then they must subscribe individually. If you receive my selections via any other means than TipExchange or my website then that person or persons is likely to be passing on my information to you fraudulently and without my permission. I would like to be notified of such a breach of my terms and conditions so that I can take the appropriate action to protect myself and my subscribers.

You must understand that I can make no promise of future profit and that past results are not necessarily a guide to future performance. If you choose to follow my selections then you do so entirely at your own risk and you should use a betting bank consisting of money that you can comfortably afford to lose. You must accept that there will be losing runs and create a betting bank sensibly sized to accomodate these periods.

If you wish to discuss any aspect of these conditions then you should email me at queribus@blueyonder.co.uk

How to use the selections

The selections can either be dutched or followed at level stakes.

The advantage of dutching is that the chance of being profitable after the two selections is greater than following the selections at level stakes (as one of the selections is often odds on).

The advantage of level stakes is that although the longer odds part of the two dutched selections win less often they also have more value therefore we gain by putting more on it.

Remember

Even with dutched selections like these there will still be losing runs - so use a betting bank.

Some common questions

Q. Is it better to dutch or use level stakes?

A. It depends upon what you wish to achieve. Dutching shows lower returns but the risk of long losing sequences is also less. Level stakes are more of a rollercoaster ride and some long losing periods are likely - however the returns are likely to be greater. Having said that, it is likely that when dutching you will risk a greater amount which counteracts this.

Q. What kind of returns can I expect?

It is a common and understandable error to presume that past performance is a direct indication of future performance. Unfortunately in horse racing it is not that straightforward as there are so many variables to consider and the relative importance of these variables are always shifting. Horses retire and maidens begin, there is no guarantee to say that we can infer that these different horse will behave in the same way as horses that we have observed in the past. Flipping a coin is an event to which we can reliably apply statistical modelling, in horse racing - you cannot. Use the proofed returns on Tipping Exchange as an indication but remember that the selection methodology changed at the beginning of February 2010.

Q. What size betting bank should I use

A. I would suggest that a cautious bank al level stakes would be 40 points. At level stakes you should expect drawdowns of between 6 and 10 points. At dutching stakes a cautious bank would be 10 points. When dutching the selections for 1 point you should expect drawdowns of between 2 and 3 points.

Q. What should I do in the event of one of the selections becoming a non runner?

A. If you are backing at level stakes IE 1 point per selection then the advice is to just back the remaining selection at the usual 1 point.

If you are backing to dutch then if you haven't yet made the dutch the advice is to reduce your normal total stake pro rata to the horse that was withdrawn's nominal percent chance of winning compared to the dutch% - or in simpler terms if one horse was evens (50%) and the other 3/1 (25%) then if the even money horse is a non runner then reduce the stake by 50% / (50% + 25%) = 2 thirds. This is only roughly what would happen automatically anyway had you placed the dutch on the exchange prior to the withdrawal. The only reason that we reduce the stake is that in dutching you are betting amounts that are proportional to the horses nominal % chance of winning so we have to reduce in the event of a non runner as our nominal % chance of a succesful dutch is now less.

David

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